Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms lead the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market at 15.2% implied probability thanks to their grassroots humanitarian network delivering aid across Sudan’s civil war, the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, combined with recent wins like the Rafto Prize, Right Livelihood Award, and PRIO endorsement. The fragmented field—with UNRWA, Yulia Navalnaya, Save the Children, and the International Court of Justice clustered between 4–7%—reflects the secretive Norwegian Nobel Committee process and 287 nominations that reward diverse signals of peacebuilding. Traders favor civilian-led relief and institutional accountability over high-profile politicians, as historical patterns show the prize often elevates under-the-radar humanitarian efforts just before the October 9 announcement.