The by-election in Lithuania’s Northern Nalšia single-member district, scheduled for 8 November 2026 after the death of incumbent Jevgenij Šuklin, features a crowded field of candidates from major parties including the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, Social Democrats, Liberals’ Movement, and others. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with Gintautas Kindurys holding a modest lead amid low probabilities for all contenders and no dominant frontrunner. The district’s recent history of narrow runoffs, combined with the absence of a strong unifying candidate or major campaign shifts in the past month, sustains the tight positioning. Upcoming nomination deadlines, party endorsements, and any late voter mobilization efforts in key areas such as Ignalina and Visaginas could consolidate support and widen gaps ahead of the first-round vote.