Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied on party vote share around 29 percent each ahead of the November 7 election, with Labour holding a narrow edge in several surveys released in September. Both major parties have fallen to multi-year lows as support shifts to smaller parties, including a record 16 percent for the Greens in the latest 1News-Verian poll. Parliament's dissolution on October 1 has intensified campaigning focused on cost-of-living pressures and economic management under the incumbent National-led coalition. Traders appear to view these trends, combined with Labour's consistent slight polling advantage over National in recent months, as supporting a modest probability that Labour will finish ahead on the party list vote. Coalition dynamics involving the Opportunity Party add further uncertainty to final seat outcomes under MMP.