Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois holding a consistent lead among francophone voters, who decide most ridings outside Montreal, while the CAQ has slipped to roughly 20-22 percent support amid criticism of healthcare wait times, cost overruns, and the transition from François Legault to Christine Fréchette. Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters place the CAQ in a wide range centered on low double digits, reflecting fragmented regional support, high incumbent retirements, and competition from the Liberals and Conservatives in key areas. With the October 5 vote ten days away, the final debate and any late shifts in turnout or vote efficiency across the 127 ridings continue to sustain the broad distribution of outcomes priced by traders.