Recent polling aggregates project the Parti Québécois winning roughly 67 seats in the October 5 election, just above the 64-seat majority threshold, driven by a sustained lead near 30 percent overall and dominance among francophone voters that translates efficiently under first-past-the-post. The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec has seen sharp support erosion in the final week, fragmenting the non-PQ vote and widening the PQ’s path while boosting Liberal and Conservative prospects in specific regions. This leaves outcomes sensitive to a handful of toss-up ridings, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in undecided support. The current market distribution across the 55–79 seat bands reflects these narrow margins and the potential for modest swings to determine whether the PQ secures a majority or falls short.