Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner

Name: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner
Start: 2025-09-29T19:08:02.634655Z
End: 2026-03-15T00:00:00Z

$3,194,333 Vol.

Mar 15, 2026

Paul Thomas Anderson 89%

Josh Safdie 5.2%

Ryan Coogler 3.9%

Jafar Panahi <1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Paul Thomas Anderson
$342,753 Vol.
89%

Josh Safdie
$332,956 Vol.
5%

Ryan Coogler
$45,684 Vol.
4%

Jafar Panahi
$273,350 Vol.
1%

Guillermo del Toro
$73,204 Vol.
1%

Chloé Zhao
$34,488 Vol.
1%

Joachim Trier
$126,343 Vol.
1%

Park Chan-wook
$676,668 Vol.
<1%

Yorgos Lanthimos
$77,667 Vol.
<1%

Hikari
$602,250 Vol.
<1%

Benny Safdie
$120,165 Vol.
<1%

Kathryn Bigelow
$31,437 Vol.
<1%

Kleber Mendonça Filho
$61,939 Vol.
<1%

Jon M. Chu
$364,604 Vol.
<1%

Derek Cianfrance
$30,826 Vol.
<1%

Rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Director.

If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Sep 29, 2025, 6:34 PM UTC

Volume

$3,194,333

End Date

Mar 15, 2026

Created At

Sep 29, 2025, 6:34 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$3,194,333 Vol.

Mar 15, 2026

Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner

Paul Thomas Anderson 89%

Josh Safdie 5.2%

Ryan Coogler 3.9%

Jafar Panahi <1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Paul Thomas Anderson

$342,753 Vol.

89%

Josh Safdie

$332,956 Vol.

Ryan Coogler

$45,684 Vol.

Jafar Panahi

$273,350 Vol.

Guillermo del Toro

$73,204 Vol.

Chloé Zhao

$34,488 Vol.

Joachim Trier

$126,343 Vol.

Park Chan-wook

$676,668 Vol.

<1%

Yorgos Lanthimos

$77,667 Vol.

<1%

Hikari

$602,250 Vol.

<1%

Benny Safdie

$120,165 Vol.

<1%

Kathryn Bigelow

$31,437 Vol.

<1%

Kleber Mendonça Filho

$61,939 Vol.

<1%

Jon M. Chu

$364,604 Vol.

<1%

Derek Cianfrance

$30,826 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$3,194,333

End Date

Mar 15, 2026

Created At

Sep 29, 2025, 6:34 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Paul Thomas Anderson be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

100%

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

76%

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

81%

Beware of external links.

Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner

Paul Thomas Anderson
$342,753 Vol.
89%

Josh Safdie
$332,956 Vol.
5%

Ryan Coogler
$45,684 Vol.
4%

Jafar Panahi
$273,350 Vol.
1%

Guillermo del Toro
$73,204 Vol.
1%

Chloé Zhao
$34,488 Vol.
1%

Joachim Trier
$126,343 Vol.
1%

Park Chan-wook
$676,668 Vol.
<1%

Yorgos Lanthimos
$77,667 Vol.
<1%

Hikari
$602,250 Vol.
<1%

Benny Safdie
$120,165 Vol.
<1%

Kathryn Bigelow
$31,437 Vol.
<1%

Kleber Mendonça Filho
$61,939 Vol.
<1%

Jon M. Chu
$364,604 Vol.
<1%

Derek Cianfrance
$30,826 Vol.
<1%

Market Context