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icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

John Malkovich 39.6%

Matt Damon 25%

Andrew Scott 16%

Tom Cruise 12%

Polymarket

$142,550 Vol.

John Malkovich 39.6%

Matt Damon 25%

Andrew Scott 16%

Tom Cruise 12%

Polymarket

$142,550 Vol.

icon for John Malkovich

John Malkovich

$12,372 Vol.

40%

icon for Matt Damon

Matt Damon

$37,828 Vol.

25%

icon for Andrew Scott

Andrew Scott

$17,149 Vol.

16%

icon for Tom Cruise

Tom Cruise

$15,342 Vol.

12%

icon for Robert Pattinson

Robert Pattinson

$5,958 Vol.

3%

icon for Sebastian Stan

Sebastian Stan

$3,499 Vol.

2%

icon for Ryan Gosling

Ryan Gosling

$5,237 Vol.

2%

icon for Jeremy Strong

Jeremy Strong

$4,497 Vol.

1%

icon for Timothée Chalamet

Timothée Chalamet

$4,187 Vol.

1%

icon for Jaafar Jackson

Jaafar Jackson

$4,646 Vol.

1%

icon for Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell

$4,935 Vol.

1%

icon for Pedro Pascal

Pedro Pascal

$3,675 Vol.

<1%

icon for Javier Bardem

Javier Bardem

$3,273 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adam Driver

Adam Driver

$2,716 Vol.

<1%

icon for Brad Pitt

Brad Pitt

$8,441 Vol.

<1%

icon for Robert Aramayo

Robert Aramayo

$3,459 Vol.

<1%

icon for John Turturro

John Turturro

$3,416 Vol.

<1%

icon for Josh O'Connor

Josh O'Connor

$1,920 Vol.

<1%

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Malkovich has surged to the top of trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Actor race after winning the prize at the Venice Film Festival for his lead turn as a reflective CIA operative in Martin McDonagh’s *Wild Horse Nine*. That early critical validation, paired with McDonagh’s history of guiding actors to Oscar recognition, has lifted Malkovich to a market-implied probability near 40 percent. Matt Damon remains the strongest studio-backed alternative at roughly 25 percent on the strength of his physically demanding Odysseus in Christopher Nolan’s summer blockbuster *The Odyssey*, yet his lead has narrowed as festival momentum shifts attention elsewhere. Andrew Scott and Tom Cruise occupy the next tier, each drawing support from distinctive auteur projects and long-standing overdue narratives. With nominations still months away and guild precursors just beginning, the field stays fluid; fresh reviews from Toronto, Telluride, or New York, plus SAG and PGA nods, will likely determine whether the current frontrunner solidifies or yields to a late surge.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$142,550
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Malkovich has surged to the top of trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Actor race after winning the prize at the Venice Film Festival for his lead turn as a reflective CIA operative in Martin McDonagh’s *Wild Horse Nine*. That early critical validation, paired with McDonagh’s history of guiding actors to Oscar recognition, has lifted Malkovich to a market-implied probability near 40 percent. Matt Damon remains the strongest studio-backed alternative at roughly 25 percent on the strength of his physically demanding Odysseus in Christopher Nolan’s summer blockbuster *The Odyssey*, yet his lead has narrowed as festival momentum shifts attention elsewhere. Andrew Scott and Tom Cruise occupy the next tier, each drawing support from distinctive auteur projects and long-standing overdue narratives. With nominations still months away and guild precursors just beginning, the field stays fluid; fresh reviews from Toronto, Telluride, or New York, plus SAG and PGA nods, will likely determine whether the current frontrunner solidifies or yields to a late surge.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$142,550
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Malkovich" at 40%, followed by "Matt Damon" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" has generated $142.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is "John Malkovich" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Damon" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.