Pakistan's cross-border airstrikes and ground operations against suspected TTP hideouts in eastern Afghanistan have driven repeated escalations in 2026, fueled by a surge in militant attacks inside Pakistan, including the September 18 Kohat incident that killed over 30 people. Islamabad has conducted strikes on sites in Kunar, Paktika, and near Kandahar in late September following alleged drone launches and infiltration attempts, while Kabul denies involvement and reports civilian casualties. These actions follow the intense February-March phase of open hostilities and failed mediation by China and others. Trader views on near-term Pakistani military moves hinge on the frequency of TTP strikes from Afghan territory and whether border tensions produce further calibrated responses before any resolution window closes.