Helder Barbalho (MDB), the former two-term governor who resigned in April 2026 to seek a Senate seat, maintains a commanding lead in Pará’s October 4 election for two vacancies, with recent polls showing him at 21–23% overall and 34–38% as first preference. His broad coalition “O Pará Tá Junto,” name recognition, and incumbency advantages position him as the clear frontrunner for first place among the 13 registered candidates. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) trails in second at 14–22%, while Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Chicão (União), and Celso Sabino (PDT) register lower single-digit shares in the fragmented contest for the second vacancy. Multiple surveys through September confirm the gap has held steady, reflecting trader consensus on Helder’s structural edge ahead of the vote.