**Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) leads trader pricing for second place in Pará’s October 4 Senate election at 63%, well ahead of Zequinha Marinho (18%), Celso Sabino (11.5%), and lower shares for Helder Barbalho, Chicão, and others.** Multiple September polls show Helder Barbalho (MDB) commanding first place with 22–36% consolidated support, leaving a fragmented contest for second. Éder Mauro consistently ranks second or tied for it (14–22.5%), drawing strength from PL-aligned and right-leaning voters, while Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), and Chicão (União) remain within or near margins of error in the 10–16% range. High undecided and blank/null shares (often 20–30%) sustain volatility in the dual-vote system. Recent surveys from Real Time, Veritá, Doxa, and AtlasIntel through mid-September reinforce Éder Mauro’s positioning without a decisive breakout by rivals, aligning with current market consensus on the likely ordering.