Delegado Éder Mauro leads the market for second place in the Pará Senate race at 63%, consistent with multiple recent polls showing him as the strongest contender behind frontrunner Helder Barbalho for one of the two seats elected on October 4. Surveys from Quaest, Real Time, Veritá, and Doxa through mid-September place Éder Mauro ahead of Zequinha Marinho, Celso Sabino, and Chicão in combined first- and second-choice scenarios, reflecting his visibility from prior federal deputy roles and a 2024 mayoral runoff run. Zequinha Marinho at 22% and Celso Sabino at 13.5% trail in these aggregates, while lower-probability names face structural barriers in name recognition and regional support. Traders appear to price polling momentum and historical patterns of PL-aligned candidates consolidating opposition votes in the state.