Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo's resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds an 85% implied probability in the market. Recent Quaest polling from mid-September shows him at 49% in the first round, well ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 16% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 15%, reflecting his incumbency, party alliances including PP and União Brasil, and broad coalition support. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain key timelines, with ongoing debates and campaign events underscoring the competitive positioning of trailing candidates amid stable polling trends.