João Azevêdo (PSB) holds a commanding position in the Paraíba Senate race due to consistent polling leads in first-vote scenarios, including 42% in the latest Quaest survey from mid-September 2026. As the former governor who resigned to seek the seat, he benefits from high name recognition and a broad coalition that has kept him well ahead of rivals such as Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB) at 16% and Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) at 8% for the initial vacancy. Recent polls show modest gains for Nabor in combined voting but no erosion of Azevêdo’s front-runner status ahead of the October 4 first round, where voters select two senators. Trader consensus on his 1st-place probability reflects this sustained advantage in voter preference data.