Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the Paraná gubernatorial race, with the latest Quaest survey showing him at 36% against 20% each for Sandro Alex (PSD) and Requião Filho (PDT) in the first-round scenario. This positioning stems from Moro's high name recognition as a former federal judge and senator, combined with active late-campaign efforts including public walks and electoral broadcasts ahead of the October 4 first round. The open contest—due to term limits barring incumbent Ratinho Junior from seeking a third consecutive term—has consolidated support around Moro as the frontrunner, while Sandro Alex benefits from the governor's backing and Requião Filho draws from left-leaning voters. Runoff simulations further reinforce Moro's edge, aligning with the market's implied probabilities amid the short timeline to election day.