Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, with first-round support near 36% in the latest Quaest survey and consistent double-digit advantages over rivals in runoff simulations. His position reflects strong name recognition from prior judicial and Senate roles, effective campaign visibility through walks and media in the Curitiba region, and backing from PL-aligned voters ahead of the October 4 first round. Sandro Alex (PSD), the candidate positioned as successor to term-limited Governor Ratinho Junior, has gained ground to reach 20% and tie Requião Filho (PDT) at the same level, narrowing but not closing gaps in head-to-head matchups. Other registered candidates remain at marginal single-digit or lower levels across multiple surveys, with limited movement in the final weeks of the campaign. Trader consensus on Moro as the frontrunner aligns with these polling trends and the structural dynamics of the contest.