Recent polling from Quaest and other institutes shows a tight contest for first place in Paraná's October 4 Senate election, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) and Filipe Barros (PL) leading or tied near the top in combined vote intentions, followed by Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) and Gleisi (PT). High undecided and blank/null shares leave room for late shifts before voters select two candidates for the state's two seats. Dallagnol's candidacy remains active after a recent TRE-PR ruling but faces ongoing appeals, adding uncertainty. Trader pricing reflects this narrow gap among frontrunners, where small movements in turnout or final-week developments could determine the leader.