Recent polling from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Real Time Big Data shows Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Filipe Barros (PL), and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) in consolidated first-and-second preference totals for Paraná’s two Senate seats. High undecided shares of 23–29 percent, plus the dual-vote system that rewards broad second preferences, have kept the field fragmented and prevented any candidate from locking in clear separation for the second-highest vote total. Dallagnol’s candidacy remains suspended by the TSE but is still active pending final resolution. The October 4 election leaves limited time for last-minute shifts in alliances or turnout among key voter blocs to reorder the standings.