A potential strong El Niño event, with NOAA placing odds above 60% for a very strong phase peaking September–November, represents the main driver behind the dispersed trader odds on peak severe drought levels in Minas Gerais during the 2026/27 coffee season. Above-normal temperatures forecast by INMET across the state coincide with the critical flowering and initial fruit-set window, raising moisture-stress risks especially in northern and central zones even where total rainfall may reach or exceed averages. Official outlooks currently rule out widespread drought, yet irregular precipitation timing and heat above 33°C could intensify deficits during reproductive stages. Key variables include El Niño evolution, regional rainfall distribution versus historical baselines, and updated seasonal model runs from INMET and NOAA that traders will monitor closely through October for shifts in implied probabilities across the 5–60%+ severity bins.