Houthi forces seized Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on or around September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops withdrew amid a rapid offensive that also captured Mocha, Dhubab, and nearby islands. This completed Houthi control over the strait’s narrowest point and key coastal positions. Subsequent reporting through late September shows Houthi consolidation via defensive fortifications, local administration, and resupply efforts, with no verified reversal or major counteroffensive by government or coalition forces. Trader probabilities for the island leaving Houthi control by late 2026 remain low because any shift would require sustained amphibious or ground operations in a contested coastal zone amid broader Yemen conflict dynamics and regional tensions involving Iran. Potential catalysts include announced Saudi-backed advances or international naval support, though none have produced confirmed changes to date.