Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, leads trader pricing at 65% for the October 4 first-round vote, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 34.5%, with other candidates like Ivan Moraes (PSOL) near zero. Recent Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys from mid-to-late September show the two frontrunners in a technical tie or narrow Lyra edge within margins of error, reflecting her incumbency advantage, roughly 61% government approval, and established statewide support against Campos’s strong Recife base. A resurfaced 2025 video of Lyra commenting on a medical procedure without consent prompted an apology but has not shifted polling momentum significantly. Minor candidates remain marginal, and the tight contest leaves room for late shifts before the potential October 25 runoff.