Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest in late September shows Marília Arraes (PDT) maintaining a narrow lead in first-round voting intentions for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, at 18-19% compared with Humberto Costa (PT) at 14-17% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 10-13%. These surveys, conducted amid high undecided and blank/null shares, have reinforced trader consensus around Arraes for first place while leaving the second vacancy more open among allied and opposing chapa candidates. Minor shifts within margins of error have not altered the ordering, supporting the wide gap in implied probabilities between the top contender and trailing names.