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icon for MLB: 2026 AL MVP
Sports·MLB

MLB: 2026 AL MVP

icon for MLB: 2026 AL MVP
Sports·MLB

MLB: 2026 AL MVP

Yordan Alvarez 91.0%

Junior Caminero 6.3%

Byron Buxton <1%

Munetaka Murakami <1%

Polymarket

$1,039,927 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez 91.0%

Junior Caminero 6.3%

Byron Buxton <1%

Munetaka Murakami <1%

Polymarket

$1,039,927 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez

$47,645 Vol.

91%

Junior Caminero

$4,309 Vol.

6%

Byron Buxton

$739 Vol.

<1%

Munetaka Murakami

$467 Vol.

<1%

Jose Ramirez

$1,949 Vol.

<1%

Ben Rice

$3,167 Vol.

<1%

Nick Kurtz

$5,265 Vol.

<1%

Cal Raleigh

$558,941 Vol.

<1%

Dillon Dingler

$833 Vol.

<1%

Aaron Judge

$8,780 Vol.

<1%

Bobby Witt Jr.

$23,257 Vol.

<1%

Gunnar Henderson

$26,997 Vol.

<1%

Corey Seager

$311,089 Vol.

<1%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

$2,371 Vol.

<1%

Mike Trout

$442 Vol.

<1%

Julio Rodriguez

$43,404 Vol.

<1%

Wilson Contreras

$274 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez's league-leading offensive production anchors the 2026 AL MVP market at 90.9% implied probability. The Astros designated hitter enters the final week atop the AL in batting average near .313 while posting 40 home runs, 99 RBIs, a .430 on-base percentage and a 1.027 OPS that sits well clear of the field. His 179 wRC+ remains the highest among qualified hitters by a substantial margin despite a late-season cooldown and Houston's precarious AL West position. Junior Caminero trails as the clearest alternative with elite power and everyday third-base play for Tampa Bay, yet the gap in traditional rate stats and advanced offensive value has kept trader consensus firmly behind Alvarez. A dramatic final-week surge by another candidate or strong emphasis on defensive contributions could narrow the margin, though the current statistical separation makes meaningful shifts unlikely before voting concludes.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,039,927
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez's league-leading offensive production anchors the 2026 AL MVP market at 90.9% implied probability. The Astros designated hitter enters the final week atop the AL in batting average near .313 while posting 40 home runs, 99 RBIs, a .430 on-base percentage and a 1.027 OPS that sits well clear of the field. His 179 wRC+ remains the highest among qualified hitters by a substantial margin despite a late-season cooldown and Houston's precarious AL West position. Junior Caminero trails as the clearest alternative with elite power and everyday third-base play for Tampa Bay, yet the gap in traditional rate stats and advanced offensive value has kept trader consensus firmly behind Alvarez. A dramatic final-week surge by another candidate or strong emphasis on defensive contributions could narrow the margin, though the current statistical separation makes meaningful shifts unlikely before voting concludes.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,039,927
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 AL MVP" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 91%, followed by "Junior Caminero" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: 2026 AL MVP" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 AL MVP," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 AL MVP" is "Yordan Alvarez" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Junior Caminero" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 AL MVP" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.