Josh Allen holds the top position in the 2026 NFL MVP market at 25.5% implied probability, driven by the Bills’ 3-0 start and his dual-threat production through three weeks, including multiple rushing touchdowns alongside passing output. Brock Purdy sits second at 16% after the 49ers also reached 3-0, fueled by elite completion rates, nine touchdown passes, and efficient play that has narrowed the gap on Allen. Lamar Jackson at 12.5% reflects Baltimore’s strong record and his continued dual-threat impact, while Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow follow at single-digit shares amid solid but less dominant early returns. The broad distribution across quarterbacks and a few skill-position names underscores how recent team records, passing efficiency, and rushing contributions shape trader consensus in this still-developing race.