Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a consistent lead in voter intentions near 29 percent, well ahead of the Liberals and Coalition Avenir Québec near 20–23 percent each, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec at 16–17 percent. This positioning, driven by strength among francophones and recent gains in suburban and senior voter segments, supports PQ plurality projections around 62 seats while leaving room for outcomes ranging from minority to slim majority. Debates in mid-September produced little movement, and the short campaign timeline to the October 5 vote, combined with regional variations and first-past-the-post dynamics, keeps seat-margin probabilities dispersed across PQ ranges and elevates the broad “Other” category as traders price in uncertainty over final distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPQ 40+ 31%
PQ 10-19 22%
PQ 20-29 21%
PQ <10 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
PQ <10
14%
PQ 10-19
22%
PQ 20-29
21%
PQ 30-39
45%
PQ 40+
31%
Another Party Wins
7%
PQ 40+ 31%
PQ 10-19 22%
PQ 20-29 21%
PQ <10 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
PQ <10
$43 Vol.
14%
PQ 10-19
$88 Vol.
22%
PQ 20-29
$83 Vol.
21%
PQ 30-39
$89 Vol.
45%
PQ 40+
$43 Vol.
31%
Another Party Wins
$83 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.
The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.
If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”
If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a consistent lead in voter intentions near 29 percent, well ahead of the Liberals and Coalition Avenir Québec near 20–23 percent each, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec at 16–17 percent. This positioning, driven by strength among francophones and recent gains in suburban and senior voter segments, supports PQ plurality projections around 62 seats while leaving room for outcomes ranging from minority to slim majority. Debates in mid-September produced little movement, and the short campaign timeline to the October 5 vote, combined with regional variations and first-past-the-post dynamics, keeps seat-margin probabilities dispersed across PQ ranges and elevates the broad “Other” category as traders price in uncertainty over final distribution.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.
The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.
If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”
If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.
If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”
If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:54 PM ET
Volume
$429End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.
The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.
If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”
If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a consistent lead in voter intentions near 29 percent, well ahead of the Liberals and Coalition Avenir Québec near 20–23 percent each, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec at 16–17 percent. This positioning, driven by strength among francophones and recent gains in suburban and senior voter segments, supports PQ plurality projections around 62 seats while leaving room for outcomes ranging from minority to slim majority. Debates in mid-September produced little movement, and the short campaign timeline to the October 5 vote, combined with regional variations and first-past-the-post dynamics, keeps seat-margin probabilities dispersed across PQ ranges and elevates the broad “Other” category as traders price in uncertainty over final distribution.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.
The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.
If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”
If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.
If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”
If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$429End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a consistent lead in voter intentions near 29 percent, well ahead of the Liberals and Coalition Avenir Québec near 20–23 percent each, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec at 16–17 percent. This positioning, driven by strength among francophones and recent gains in suburban and senior voter segments, supports PQ plurality projections around 62 seats while leaving room for outcomes ranging from minority to slim majority. Debates in mid-September produced little movement, and the short campaign timeline to the October 5 vote, combined with regional variations and first-past-the-post dynamics, keeps seat-margin probabilities dispersed across PQ ranges and elevates the broad “Other” category as traders price in uncertainty over final distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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