Recent polls show the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead of roughly 28-29% in popular support, driven by strong francophone backing, while the incumbent CAQ has slipped to around 20-22% and the Liberals and Conservatives compete closely for second. With the October 5 election ten days away and advance voting imminent, seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the PQ in the low-to-mid 50s seats on average—enough for a plurality but short of the 64-seat majority threshold—yet with wide ranges reflecting dozens of competitive ridings. This fragmentation and volatility in close contests explain the elevated 50% probability assigned to “Other,” alongside distributed odds across PQ margin categories and a modest chance for another party to finish first. Recent debates and regional shifts, including Conservative strength in Quebec City, have kept outcomes fluid without altering the overall PQ advantage.