Recent polling for Quintana Roo's 2027 gubernatorial and legislative contests shows Morena and its PT-PVEM allies holding a narrow edge in party identification while opposition forces including PAN, PRI, and MC form a competitive bloc within the margin of error. A late-September survey placed the Morena coalition at 45% versus 44% for the main opposition grouping, reflecting divided voter preferences ahead of candidate selections. Morena maintains its current majority in the state congress and has advanced internal coordination for the next cycle, yet the absence of finalized alliances or nominees keeps seat-projection models fluid. Traders price Morena slightly ahead on its incumbency and organizational reach, while the multi-party field at even odds captures uncertainty over coalition dynamics and turnout patterns that could shift control of the legislature.