Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest in late September 2026 shows Benedita da Silva leading overall intentions for Rio de Janeiro's two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella, Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, and Pedro Paulo. Each voter selects two candidates, which spreads support and sustains tight positioning in the implied probabilities. PL candidates have gained ground in successive surveys, yet no single contender has established a durable edge. Upcoming campaign events, coalition endorsements, and shifts in conservative or center-right voter consolidation could alter rankings before the October election. High undecided shares and technical ties across multiple names keep separation uncertain.