Allyson (União Brasil), the former Mossoró mayor, leads the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial race in recent polling averages with 30–42% first-round support, often approaching or exceeding the threshold for an outright win. This positioning stems from his record of strong local victories, including re-election with over 78% of the vote, and a broad center-right coalition that includes União Brasil, MDB, and allied parties. Cadu de Lula (PT) and Álvaro Dias (PL) trail as the main challengers in the low-to-mid 20s, reflecting narrower bases and ongoing campaign efforts such as sector meetings and caravans ahead of the October 4 first round. Minor candidates register negligible support, consistent with their limited visibility and resources. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates the latest September surveys showing stability in Allyson’s lead despite a competitive field.