Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) holds the strongest position in recent polling for first place among candidates for Rio Grande do Sul's two Senate seats in the October 4 election, reflecting sustained support from male voters and alignment with certain gubernatorial coalitions. Surveys from September, including Brasmarket, show him ahead at 34.7% when combining first and second preferences, ahead of Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) and Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), while Paraná Pesquisas and others indicate a tighter race with D'Ávila or Paulo Pimenta (PT) competitive depending on the methodology. Established names such as Germano Rigotto (MDB) and Frederico Antunes (PSD) trail, with lower-polling independents and minor-party candidates facing structural barriers from limited name recognition and coalition backing. Trader pricing aligns with these patterns, treating the contest as Van Hattem's to lose absent major late shifts.