Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO) leads the Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for first place in trader pricing, reflecting his consistent top positioning in several recent polls amid a contest for two seats on October 4. Consolidated first-and-second vote surveys, including Brasmarket's mid-September result showing him at 34.7%, place him ahead of Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB), though other polls from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas show tighter races or slight edges for D'Ávila within margins of error. Van Hattem's prior strong performance as the state's top federal deputy vote-getter, his NOVO affiliation, and the "O Rio Grande Pode Mais" coalition have sustained momentum heading into the final weeks. Lower-priced candidates trail significantly in available polling, consistent with the market's wide spread.