Recent polling from late August through mid-September shows Teresa Surita (MDB) leading overall with 19-25% support for one of Roraima’s two Senate seats, while Nicoletti (PL), Helena da Asatur (PSD), and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) remain clustered within the margin of error for the remaining positions. High undecided rates—often exceeding 60% in spontaneous responses—combined with voters selecting two candidates create volatility in second-place ordering. The field’s fragmentation, limited recent campaign momentum for any single contender, and the October 4 election timeline keep probabilities for second place closely matched among the top challengers, with trader pricing reflecting this uncertainty and the potential for late shifts in turnout or alliances to reorder the outcome.