Pierre-Luc Brillant of the Parti Québécois leads trader consensus in the Rosemont riding at 73.5% implied probability, reflecting his established local profile as a returning candidate and the open-seat dynamic after incumbent Vincent Marissal's departure from Québec solidaire. Recent polling aggregates and models from late September show a toss-up between the PQ and QS, with Brillant edging ahead on vote projections around 37% versus 30% for Gisèle Pouhe Njall. The riding's shift from a QS bastion since 2018, combined with lower historical support for the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives in this Montreal district, keeps their candidates at much weaker odds. The October 5 general election leaves limited time for further shifts from debates or turnout patterns among progressive voters.