Vice President JD Vance holds a consistent lead in early 2028 Republican presidential nomination polling, typically outpacing Secretary of State Marco Rubio by double digits in national and state surveys as of September 2026. Rubio has repeatedly stated he has no plans to seek the nomination and would support Vance if the vice president runs, while Trump has privately signaled preference for Vance as his successor. With the formal primary process not expected to begin until after the 2026 midterms, traders view a sudden overtake by Rubio before October 31 as improbable absent major unforeseen developments such as abrupt shifts in Trump’s stance, health events, or polling reversals from scandals. Current market pricing reflects this entrenched positioning and Rubio’s public deference.