Recent Republican midterm losses have pressured early 2028 GOP nomination markets, with Marco Rubio trading near 19% on Polymarket and Kalshi after earlier declines from the mid-20s. Both Rubio and J.D. Vance saw reduced trader consensus following the results, while Ron DeSantis posted modest gains. Rubio has repeatedly stated he has no plans to resign from the Trump administration or discuss a presidential bid, emphasizing focus on his roles as secretary of state and national security adviser. National polling averages continue to show Vance ahead of Rubio, though one recent survey placed Rubio in the lead. No formal announcements or major scheduled events are set before year-end that would directly alter these probabilities.