Ongoing Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, including recent attacks on Kyiv, continue to shape trader views on near-term ceasefire prospects. Vladimir Putin stated on September 25 that all Ukrainian peace proposals remain under consideration but must align with Russian security interests, including limits on NATO expansion and Ukrainian demilitarization. US diplomatic efforts have focused on an energy truce and broader talks, while UN discussions in late September highlighted calls for de-escalation amid rising civilian casualties. Russia’s troop reinforcements and long-range strike campaign reinforce its strategy of attrition heading into winter. These factors sustain market pricing that reflects persistent battlefield momentum and unresolved core disputes over territory and alliances.