Recent polling from late September 2026 shows Carol de Toni (PL) gaining ground and leading or tying for first in Santa Catarina's Senate race, where voters select two candidates. Quaest reported her at 17% combined mentions versus 16% for Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) and 15% for Esperidião Amin (PP), with technical ties across the top three; separate first-place cuts gave her a slight edge at 19%. Paraná Pesquisas similarly placed her at 42.3% total mentions ahead of the others. High undecided shares persist, but de Toni's upward trend from August surveys and PL alignment in a bolsonarista-leaning state have driven trader consensus toward her elevated probability for topping the field, while Amin and Bolsonaro trail amid the competitive multi-candidate dynamics.