Recent polling from late September 2026 shows a technical three-way tie among Carol de Toni, Carlos Bolsonaro, and Esperidião Amin for Santa Catarina's two Senate seats, with consolidated support in the mid-teens and large shares of undecided voters. This positioning sustains tight implied probabilities for second place, as the candidates draw from overlapping center-right bases and face similar structural barriers to consolidation. Voter indecision exceeding 25% in stimulated surveys, combined with modest shifts in recent Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas releases, limits separation among the leaders. Further movement could arise from final-week campaign events, party coordination signals, or turnout differentials in key regions ahead of the October 4 vote.