Recent polls from Datafolha and Vox show a technical four-way tie among Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) for São Paulo’s two Senate seats on October 4, with each hovering between 12% and 28% depending on the survey. This closeness stems from the candidates’ alignment with rival gubernatorial coalitions—Tarcísio de Freitas endorsing the right-leaning pair and Fernando Haddad backing the center-left duo—plus high undecided and blank vote shares exceeding 30%. Recent debates in mid-September have not yet produced decisive shifts, keeping second-place probabilities compressed among the leaders while fringe options remain negligible. Further polling releases or late campaign events could widen gaps by clarifying voter preferences between the two blocs.