The closely contested 51.5% implied probability that the Supreme Court will invalidate AR-15 bans reflects the six-justice conservative majority’s recent expansion of Second Amendment protections alongside lingering uncertainty over Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett. On June 30, 2026, the Court granted certiorari in consolidated challenges to bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut, setting oral arguments for the October 2026 term with a likely decision by mid-2027. Four conservative justices have already signaled that AR-15-style rifles qualify as arms in common use for lawful purposes under precedents like Heller and Bruen, while lower courts have repeatedly upheld the restrictions as targeting unusually dangerous weapons. Trader pricing captures the risk that one or both swing votes could limit the ruling’s scope or preserve limited state authority, with upcoming briefing and arguments poised to shift sentiment depending on how the justices frame historical tradition and modern ownership data.