All three 2026 Senate contests remain toss-ups in polling averages, with Democratic nominee James Talarico edging or tying Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Mike Rogers in the open Michigan seat, and Troy Jackson running within a point or two of incumbent Susan Collins in Maine. These tight margins reflect competitive fundamentals—an open Republican-held seat in Texas after the primary, an open Democratic seat in Michigan, and Collins’s established cross-party appeal in a state that leans Democratic at the presidential level—combined with recent polling showing no decisive separation on issues such as the economy or candidate-specific concerns. Trader consensus around a 50-42 split between mixed results and a Democratic sweep tracks the narrow, state-by-state variability, where small shifts in turnout among independents or late campaign developments could alter any single outcome without favoring a full sweep or Republican clean sweep.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems sweep 43%
Reps TX & MI, Dems ME 12%
Reps TX, Dems MI & ME 11%
Dems TX & MI, Reps ME 8.3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Dems sweep
43%
Reps TX & MI, Dems ME
12%
Reps TX, Dems MI & ME
11%
Dems TX & MI, Reps ME
8%
Reps sweep
7%
Dems TX & ME, Reps MI
7%
Reps TX & ME, Dems MI
6%
Dems TX, Reps MI & ME
4%
Dems sweep 43%
Reps TX & MI, Dems ME 12%
Reps TX, Dems MI & ME 11%
Dems TX & MI, Reps ME 8.3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Dems sweep
$1,338 Vol.
43%
Reps TX & MI, Dems ME
$169 Vol.
12%
Reps TX, Dems MI & ME
$157 Vol.
11%
Dems TX & MI, Reps ME
$116 Vol.
8%
Reps sweep
$131 Vol.
7%
Dems TX & ME, Reps MI
$164 Vol.
7%
Reps TX & ME, Dems MI
$142 Vol.
6%
Dems TX, Reps MI & ME
$119 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
All three 2026 Senate contests remain toss-ups in polling averages, with Democratic nominee James Talarico edging or tying Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Mike Rogers in the open Michigan seat, and Troy Jackson running within a point or two of incumbent Susan Collins in Maine. These tight margins reflect competitive fundamentals—an open Republican-held seat in Texas after the primary, an open Democratic seat in Michigan, and Collins’s established cross-party appeal in a state that leans Democratic at the presidential level—combined with recent polling showing no decisive separation on issues such as the economy or candidate-specific concerns. Trader consensus around a 50-42 split between mixed results and a Democratic sweep tracks the narrow, state-by-state variability, where small shifts in turnout among independents or late campaign developments could alter any single outcome without favoring a full sweep or Republican clean sweep.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volume
$2,336End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
All three 2026 Senate contests remain toss-ups in polling averages, with Democratic nominee James Talarico edging or tying Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Mike Rogers in the open Michigan seat, and Troy Jackson running within a point or two of incumbent Susan Collins in Maine. These tight margins reflect competitive fundamentals—an open Republican-held seat in Texas after the primary, an open Democratic seat in Michigan, and Collins’s established cross-party appeal in a state that leans Democratic at the presidential level—combined with recent polling showing no decisive separation on issues such as the economy or candidate-specific concerns. Trader consensus around a 50-42 split between mixed results and a Democratic sweep tracks the narrow, state-by-state variability, where small shifts in turnout among independents or late campaign developments could alter any single outcome without favoring a full sweep or Republican clean sweep.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,336End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...All three 2026 Senate contests remain toss-ups in polling averages, with Democratic nominee James Talarico edging or tying Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Mike Rogers in the open Michigan seat, and Troy Jackson running within a point or two of incumbent Susan Collins in Maine. These tight margins reflect competitive fundamentals—an open Republican-held seat in Texas after the primary, an open Democratic seat in Michigan, and Collins’s established cross-party appeal in a state that leans Democratic at the presidential level—combined with recent polling showing no decisive separation on issues such as the economy or candidate-specific concerns. Trader consensus around a 50-42 split between mixed results and a Democratic sweep tracks the narrow, state-by-state variability, where small shifts in turnout among independents or late campaign developments could alter any single outcome without favoring a full sweep or Republican clean sweep.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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