Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA tracking place September 2026 on pace for roughly 16.26°C globally, trailing the September 2023 record by about 0.12°C while remaining well ahead of 2024 and 2025 values. A strong El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.8°C and forecasts peaking near +3.3°C, continues to release stored ocean heat and sustain elevated sea-surface temperatures that elevate land and ocean averages. This combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to position the month as second-hottest on record with high market-implied odds. Final NOAA NCEI rankings could shift only with unusually rapid late-month cooling or post-processing revisions, both low-probability outcomes given current ensemble forecasts.