Recent polling shows the United Serbia list, led by Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party, holding steady near 48 percent while the Student List has climbed to around 37 percent, reflecting gains from sustained civic mobilization and opposition consolidation. The October 25 parliamentary vote remains tightly contested due to high polarization, declining institutional trust, and questions over turnout in a snap election called amid ongoing protests. These factors have produced a wide distribution of trader probabilities across the 35-50 percent range, as the wisdom of crowds prices in uncertainty around final voter mobilization, minor party thresholds, and any late campaign shifts.