Serbia’s snap parliamentary election on October 25 pits the ruling United Serbia list, headed by former President Aleksandar Vučić seeking the prime minister role, against the opposition Student List backed by multiple parties and emerging from nearly two years of anti-corruption protests triggered by the 2024 Novi Sad railway canopy collapse. Vučić’s recent resignation, required by term limits, and the early vote call have intensified the contest in a polarized environment marked by student mobilization and opposition fragmentation. Summer polling showed the Student List narrowly ahead of United Serbia among decided voters, while the presence of additional lists contributes to uncertainty over which will secure the largest share. These dynamics support trader pricing that assigns the highest implied probability to outcomes featuring a third list winning or modest victory margins for the main contenders.