Recent polling in the final weeks before the October 4 vote shows a fragmented field for Sergipe’s two Senate seats, with Delegado André David holding a narrow lead in first-preference intentions around 18-20 percent while André Moura, Delegado Alessandro, Rogério Carvalho, and others cluster between roughly 10-14 percent. High shares of undecided and blank/null responses, combined with voters selecting two candidates, sustain tight implied probabilities across the leading names and keep separation limited. Candidate registrations closed in September with no major withdrawals or disqualifications altering the lineup, and surveys released in the past several days have not produced decisive shifts outside margins of error. Trader consensus in the market reflects this ongoing uncertainty over which contender will finish first.