Recent polling from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows a fragmented field for Sergipe’s two Senate seats, with Delegado André David frequently leading but multiple candidates clustered in the low-to-mid teens for the second position. High shares of undecided and blank/null voters, combined with voters selecting two names, sustain volatility in second-place outcomes. Rogerio Carvalho, André Moura, Delegado Alessandro, and Eduardo Amorim remain within striking distance in the latest surveys, while lower-polling names trail. This competitive distribution aligns with current market pricing that assigns meaningful probabilities across several contenders. Final-week campaign momentum, regional turnout shifts, or late consolidation behind frontrunners could alter second-place rankings before the October vote.