Recent polls for Sergipe’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field ahead of the October 4 election, with Delegado André David (Republicanos) leading first-round intentions around 18 percent while Rogério Carvalho (PT), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), André Moura (União Brasil), Eduardo Amorim, Rodrigo Valadares, and Edvaldo Nogueira cluster in the 9–14 percent range. High undecided and blank/null shares, often exceeding 20 percent, sustain uncertainty over the precise second-place finisher. Party coalitions formalized in August and ongoing campaign positioning among incumbents and challengers continue to shape voter preferences, leaving traders to price the second seat as closely contested among the top four or five names until clearer separation emerges closer to voting.