South African Reserve Bank forecasts and recent CPI prints anchor trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 4.1–4.7 percent, with the 4.1–4.4 percent bin holding a modest lead at 29.6 percent implied probability. The central bank’s May 2026 projection of 4.4 percent average headline inflation reflects persistent food-price pressures and an April reading of 4.0 percent, offset by a stronger rand and softer energy costs that have kept monthly prints between 3.0 and 4.0 percent since late 2025. The November 2025 shift to a 3 percent point target with a ±1 percent band has reinforced disinflationary expectations, yet administered-price risks and modest GDP growth near 1.5 percent limit the scope for a sharper decline below 4 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the next MPC decision and July CPI release, which will clarify whether the current range-bound trajectory persists or shifts the balance among the tightly contested 4.1–4.7 percent outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
4.1-4.4% 29.6%
4.4-4.7% 22.1%
3.8-4.1% 13.9%
4.7-5.0% 8.9%
$39,549 Vol.
$39,549 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
<1%
2.6-2.9%
<1%
2.9-3.2%
3%
3.2-3.5%
3%
3.5-3.8%
4%
3.8-4.1%
14%
4.1-4.4%
30%
4.4-4.7%
22%
4.7-5.0%
9%
>5.0%
9%
4.1-4.4% 29.6%
4.4-4.7% 22.1%
3.8-4.1% 13.9%
4.7-5.0% 8.9%
$39,549 Vol.
$39,549 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
$1,219 Vol.
<1%
2.6-2.9%
$1,854 Vol.
<1%
2.9-3.2%
$1,564 Vol.
3%
3.2-3.5%
$1,245 Vol.
3%
3.5-3.8%
$1,798 Vol.
4%
3.8-4.1%
$2,832 Vol.
14%
4.1-4.4%
$2,588 Vol.
30%
4.4-4.7%
$14,940 Vol.
22%
4.7-5.0%
$3,272 Vol.
9%
>5.0%
$8,236 Vol.
9%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South African Reserve Bank forecasts and recent CPI prints anchor trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 4.1–4.7 percent, with the 4.1–4.4 percent bin holding a modest lead at 29.6 percent implied probability. The central bank’s May 2026 projection of 4.4 percent average headline inflation reflects persistent food-price pressures and an April reading of 4.0 percent, offset by a stronger rand and softer energy costs that have kept monthly prints between 3.0 and 4.0 percent since late 2025. The November 2025 shift to a 3 percent point target with a ±1 percent band has reinforced disinflationary expectations, yet administered-price risks and modest GDP growth near 1.5 percent limit the scope for a sharper decline below 4 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the next MPC decision and July CPI release, which will clarify whether the current range-bound trajectory persists or shifts the balance among the tightly contested 4.1–4.7 percent outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$39,549End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South African Reserve Bank forecasts and recent CPI prints anchor trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 4.1–4.7 percent, with the 4.1–4.4 percent bin holding a modest lead at 29.6 percent implied probability. The central bank’s May 2026 projection of 4.4 percent average headline inflation reflects persistent food-price pressures and an April reading of 4.0 percent, offset by a stronger rand and softer energy costs that have kept monthly prints between 3.0 and 4.0 percent since late 2025. The November 2025 shift to a 3 percent point target with a ±1 percent band has reinforced disinflationary expectations, yet administered-price risks and modest GDP growth near 1.5 percent limit the scope for a sharper decline below 4 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the next MPC decision and July CPI release, which will clarify whether the current range-bound trajectory persists or shifts the balance among the tightly contested 4.1–4.7 percent outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$39,549End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South African Reserve Bank forecasts and recent CPI prints anchor trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 4.1–4.7 percent, with the 4.1–4.4 percent bin holding a modest lead at 29.6 percent implied probability. The central bank’s May 2026 projection of 4.4 percent average headline inflation reflects persistent food-price pressures and an April reading of 4.0 percent, offset by a stronger rand and softer energy costs that have kept monthly prints between 3.0 and 4.0 percent since late 2025. The November 2025 shift to a 3 percent point target with a ±1 percent band has reinforced disinflationary expectations, yet administered-price risks and modest GDP growth near 1.5 percent limit the scope for a sharper decline below 4 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the next MPC decision and July CPI release, which will clarify whether the current range-bound trajectory persists or shifts the balance among the tightly contested 4.1–4.7 percent outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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