Recent fuel price surges tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted South Africa’s headline CPI to 5.0% in June before easing to 4.3% in July and 4.4% in August 2026, keeping the 2026 annual average in a tight range around the South African Reserve Bank’s 4.5% upper target band. The SARB’s September 2026 hike of the policy rate to 7.25% reflects concerns over transport costs remaining elevated and services inflation above 5%, while food prices stay subdued near multi-year lows. These opposing forces create closely matched market-implied odds across the 4.4–5.0% and >5.0% outcomes, with October CPI data and oil-price developments likely to determine whether the annual figure settles in the mid-4% range or pushes higher before year-end moderation.