Recent polling averages project the PSOE at roughly 105–112 seats in the November 29 snap election, well below the 121 seats secured in 2023. The center-right PP leads on about 31 percent, with Vox near 19 percent, giving the right-wing bloc a projected 199–201 seats and an overwhelming likelihood of an absolute majority. Sánchez’s decision to advance the vote after parliamentary defeats on housing decrees has not reversed the Socialist decline, while fragmentation among left-wing allies has limited any compensatory gains. These consistent survey trends across multiple firms underpin trader expectations that the PSOE will lose rather than add seats.