Tennessee's 2nd congressional district, anchored in Knoxville and eastern Tennessee, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+17. Incumbent Tim Burchett faces minimal opposition in the August 6 Republican primary while Democrat Michaela Barnett advances as the presumptive nominee in her party's primary the same day. The seat's consistent performance in prior cycles, including Burchett's 2024 victory by nearly 40 points, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. The district's voter composition and absence of competitive dynamics limit Democratic prospects. A late scandal, health event affecting Burchett, or unforeseen national shift could alter the outcome before November 3, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-02 House Election Winner
TN-02 House Election Winner
$28,042 Vol.
$28,042 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$28,042 Vol.
$28,042 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,235 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$8,807 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 2nd congressional district, anchored in Knoxville and eastern Tennessee, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+17. Incumbent Tim Burchett faces minimal opposition in the August 6 Republican primary while Democrat Michaela Barnett advances as the presumptive nominee in her party's primary the same day. The seat's consistent performance in prior cycles, including Burchett's 2024 victory by nearly 40 points, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. The district's voter composition and absence of competitive dynamics limit Democratic prospects. A late scandal, health event affecting Burchett, or unforeseen national shift could alter the outcome before November 3, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$28,042End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 2nd congressional district, anchored in Knoxville and eastern Tennessee, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+17. Incumbent Tim Burchett faces minimal opposition in the August 6 Republican primary while Democrat Michaela Barnett advances as the presumptive nominee in her party's primary the same day. The seat's consistent performance in prior cycles, including Burchett's 2024 victory by nearly 40 points, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. The district's voter composition and absence of competitive dynamics limit Democratic prospects. A late scandal, health event affecting Burchett, or unforeseen national shift could alter the outcome before November 3, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,042End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 2nd congressional district, anchored in Knoxville and eastern Tennessee, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+17. Incumbent Tim Burchett faces minimal opposition in the August 6 Republican primary while Democrat Michaela Barnett advances as the presumptive nominee in her party's primary the same day. The seat's consistent performance in prior cycles, including Burchett's 2024 victory by nearly 40 points, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. The district's voter composition and absence of competitive dynamics limit Democratic prospects. A late scandal, health event affecting Burchett, or unforeseen national shift could alter the outcome before November 3, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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