Recent polling from late September shows Professora Dorinha (União) leading first-round intentions at 42% to Vicentinho Júnior’s (PSDB) 29%, with Laurez Moreira, Siqueira Campos Jr., and remaining candidates in single digits. Dorinha has widened her advantage since August surveys, while the race stays competitive in runoff simulations. With the October 4 first round days away and roughly 9% undecided, trader pricing reflects her edge in consolidating support across Tocantins’ 1.18 million voters alongside the persistent possibility of a tight second-round contest on October 25. Campaign stops in key regions and alliance dynamics continue to shape the final push.